External Validity of a New Prediction Model for Patient Satisfaction After Total Knee Arthroplasty

Background: The ability to identify patients at risk of dissatisfaction after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) remains elusive. This study's purpose was to determine the external validity of a recently published prediction model for patient satisfaction (PMPS) with the hypothesis that it would achieve similar predictive success in our study sample. Methods: A 10-question PMPS statistically derived from 5 patient-reported outcome questionnaires was tested for external validity in this prospective cohort investigation. The PMPS incorporates gender, age, stiffness, noise, and pain catastrophizing, with a score of 20 or greater predictive of satisfaction. As in the original study, to determine satisfaction the 2011 Knee Society Score (KSS) satisfaction subscale was collected at 3 months postoperatively. Two hundred seventy-four patients were administered the PMPS preoperatively, and 145 patients completed the KSS at 3 months postoperatively (53.0% response rate; 59% female; age, 64.9; body mass index, 32.5). A Bland-Altman analysis to assess agreement was performed. Results: One hundred thirty-three patients (91.7%) were satisfied and 12 (8.3%) were dissatisfied based on their postoperative KSS. The mean difference between the PMPS and KSS was 3.6 +/- 8, but with a 95% prediction interval of - 15.3 to 22.1 signifying almost no correlation. The PMPS did not predict any of the 12 dissatisfied patients postoperatively, and falsely predicted 5 patients to be dissatisfied of which 4 actually had a maximum postoperative KSS of 40. Conclusion: A previously published, internally validated 10-question PMPS was unable to predict satisfaction after TKA in our external study sample. This study emphasizes the difficulty of developing a simple, but robust questionnaire that consistently predicts patient satisfaction after TKA. (c) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.