The political reemergence of Christian Lebanon?

An agreement between the principal Lebanese Christian leaders, Samir Geagea and Michel Aoun, has begun a collaboration between two previously radically antagonistic actors. The objective of this article is to assess the possibility that this implies a remarkable shift in the post-civil war political balance, in favour of the Christian community. In order to achieve this objective, the paper analyses a number of different possible political scenarios and their implications for the Lebanese institutional system. The conclusions suggest that several circumstances, including the polarisation of Lebanese politics, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, and the Syrian civil war, have contributed to the enhancement of Christian political influence within the current electoral coalitions. However, traditional divisions among the Christian elites renders unlikely the emergence of either a true Christian pole or a 'third way'. Regardless, the effects of the agreement have been positive in relation to solving the existing institutional blockade. It has also contributed to attaining a consensus concerning the new electoral law, as traditional parties are interested in preventing the emergence of new political actors.