Type II solar radio bursts predicted by 3-D MHD CME and kinetic radio emission simulations

Impending space weather events at Earth are often signaled by type II solar radio bursts. These bursts are generated upstream of shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that move away from the Sun. We combine elaborate three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic predictions of realistic CMEs near the Sun with a recent analytic kinetic radiation theory in order to simulate two type II bursts. Magnetograms of the Sun are used to reconstruct initial solar magnetic and active region fields for the modeling. STEREO spacecraft data are used to dimension the flux rope of the initial CME, launched into an empirical data-driven corona and solar wind. We demonstrate impressive accuracy in time, frequency, and intensity for the two type II bursts observed by the Wind spacecraft on 15 February 2011 and 7 March 2012. Propagation of the simulated CME-driven shocks through coronal plasmas containing preexisting density and magnetic field structures that stem from the coronal setup and CME initiation closely reproduce the isolated islands of type II emission observed. These islands form because of a competition between the growth of the radio source due to spherical expansion and a fragmentation of the radio source due to increasingly radial fields in the nose region of the shock and interactions with streamers in the flank regions of the shock. Our study provides strong support for this theory for type II bursts and implies that the physical processes involved are understood. It also supports a near-term capability to predict and track these events for space weather predictions.