Cost Boundaries for Future PV Solar Cell Modules

Growth of the photovoltaic (PV) market is still constrained by high initial capital costs of PV. Developments in PV technologies may lead to cheaper systems at the likely expense of life expectancy and efficiency. Cost boundaries are required for future PV technologies to compete effectively within the current PV market. This paper develops a methodology based on life-cycle costing and sensitivity analysis to determine cost boundaries for new PV technologies. Amongst other comparisons with existing PV systems, the upper Watt-peak cost bounds are estimated and the minimum economically viable replacement period is illustrated. Furthermore, future PV system ratings are compared to current PV systems for similar energy outputs. The results show that a price reduction factor greater than 5 is competitive for future solar cell lifetimes of less than 4-5 years. Meanwhile, future PV systems were, on balance, found to have higher ratings compared to current PV systems of similar energy outputs. The potential application of the model developed in this work is also discussed.