Soil erosion and climate change: Assessing potential impacts and adaptation practices

Changes in climate associated with changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases might affect soil erosion by wind and water. Changes in erosion could in turn cause changes in productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems, and changes in air quality (PM10) and water quality (sediment transport). Substantial effects on productivity may however, only occur several decades after climate changes. This paper presents a procedure for assessing the potential effects of climate change on erosion and productivity. A preliminary screening process is used to identify and prioritize regions and management systems. Subsequent simulation of selected sites with the EPIC model is used to investigate potential practices to adapt agricultural systems to climate change. In some cases, proposed adaptation strategies might reduce sustainability if they due not matched to environmental conditions found at specific sites. As an example, the assessment procedure is applied to evaluate vulnerability and adaptation practices for a 20% increase in mean monthly wind speeds in the U.S. corn belt.