MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WINTER WHEAT YIELD IN NOVI SAD (VOJVODINA) USING DSSAT CROP MODEL

DSSAT v. 4.0 is a crop model commonly used to quantify the climate change impacts on agriculture production. The model objective is to predict the duration of growth, the average growth rates and the amount of assimilate partitioned to the economic yield components of the plant. The DSSAT model structure is comprehensively described in this paper. The input data were used from Balkan winter wheat twelve year field experiment from Rimski Sancevi in Novi Sad and climate data were given by Republic Hydrometeorology Service of Serbia for current climate and 2030 and 2050 using three climate models (ECHAM5, HadCM3 and NCAR-PCM). DSSAT 4.0 wheat yield simulations were done for 1971-2000, for 2030 and 2050. In the paper is presented the yield change for 2030 and 2050, calculated relative to 1971-2000, as quantitative indicator of climate change impact on wheat yield and production. The yield analyses shown no changes in 2030 and 2050, except in 2050 a slightly decrease in yield for NCAR-PCM model. The results shown winter wheat benefit in climate change conditions, because its growing season begins during winter months when the climate model ECHAM5, under A1B scenario predicted the favorable climatic conditions in 2030 and 2050. The results analyses from climate and crop models have huge importance in making decisions for adaptation measures in agro technology in expected climate conditions for many important crops in agriculture.