The effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States

被引：6

作者：

Metelli, Luca ^{[1
]}

Natoli, Filippo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Bank Italy, Rome, Italy

来源：

ECONOMIC MODELLING | 2017年 / 62卷

关键词：

China; Slowdown; Deflation; Devaluation;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.026

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We investigate the effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States using the NiGEM multi-country model. We construct different scenarios including a fall in Chinese aggregate demand, a commodity price slump, financial market corrections and a devaluation of the renmimbi. While the commodity slump has the strongest impact on inflation, the demand and exchange rate shocks also play a role; on the contrary, financial turbulences have minor effects. Finally, we study the extent to which monetary policy in advanced economies can succeed in reflating the economy following such a Chinese slowdown. The room for central bank interventions is large.

引用

页码：16 / 22

页数：7

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