A local simulation study on the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in north-eastern Austria

The WOFOST crop model was evaluated for a winter wheat cultivar at a location in north-eastern Austria (Marchfeld). Water-limited (rainfed) and potential yields were simulated in order to estimate the effect of climatic change scenarios on crop growth and yield. The effect of soil water storage capacity was estimated by a sensitivity analysis. The overall results show that the combined effect of climatic change will lead to an increase in winter wheat grain yield of 30-55 % based on the current production technique and depending on the defined available soil water storage capacity of the soils used in our study. The production potential shows the significant impact of soil water availability on yields even under a shortened vegetation period of winter wheat, which is caused by higher temperatures. In general, water-saving techniques in plant production will be very important under future climatic conditions through higher evapotranspiration potential.