Risk-Based Optimization of Security Strategies for Terrorist Attacks on Urban Targets

In the field of terrorism risk, terrorist attacks against urban targets have been a hot research topic. In this paper, a quantitative urban targets risk assessment and mitigation framework which consists of terrorist attack risk assessment and security strategy optimization is proposed. First, a conditional probability based risk description function is constructed for risk loss assessment. Second, the loss minimum based optimization function is constructed to optimize anti-terrorist security strategies. On these bases, the quantitative framework is established. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a railway station is used as an example to analyze the risk of terrorist attacks on urban targets and to evaluate the effectiveness of different security measures and optimize strategies. Through model function analysis, data comparison and optimization feedback, the proposed model shows advantages and potential, providing decision and technical support for solving the problem of terrorism-related security on urban targets.