Risk Assessment of Highway Congestion Based on Belief Rule-Based System

This paper aims to assess the risk of highway congestion based on Belief Rule-Based (BRB) systems. In the risk assessment, several factors are comprehensively considered, such as the speed at highway toll station, travel time and weather. A belief rule base is constructed based on the congestion evaluation indices to infer the congestion risk with historical data and experts' knowledge. Through a sensitivity analysis, critical factors can be extracted to modify the parameters of the BRB systems so that it can be more suitable and accurate for risk assessment of highway congestion. After researching all conditions of underlying indices, it can provide decision support to related government sectors and travelling proposals to drivers.