Planning for growth in depopulating cities: An analysis of population projections and population change in depopulating and populating US cities

One of the most critical tasks in creating community plans and developing local planning policies and priorities is projecting populations, as accurate projections help communities appropriately distribute resources and services. While inaccurate population projections are problematic and have long-term and lasting effects for all cities, they are especially problematic in depopulating cities where the tax burden is shared among fewer residents - a large-scale public works project, a new convention center, more housing, or the annexation of land can further burden residents and strain public resources. This research examines how (and if) cities are using population projection data to guide their plans for the future, and if it varies between cities that are losing residents and cities that are gaining residents. Population projections are examined from 41 depopulating and 41 populating US cities. Levels of accuracy in the population projections are compared, along with other population change sensitive variables such as land use, housing, and vacancy. The findings indicated that population projection errors are present in both depopulating and populating cities. However, most depopulating cities anticipate growth, despite data to the contrary. This research also found that land area expansion in depopulating cities is not sensitive to population loss, and that there is a significant time-lag between population peak and land and housing unit peaks. This suggests that depopulating cities respond slowly to population decline. This research aims to underscore the importance of accurate population projections and their role in informing planning strategies and resource allocation, in depopulating cities specifically.