Wind power system reliability and maintenance optimization considering turbine and wind uncertainty

Purpose Wind power is an important source of renewable energy and accounts for significant portions in supplying electricity in many countries and locations. The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for wind power system reliability assessment and condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization considering both turbine and wind uncertainty. Existing studies on wind power system reliability mostly considered wind uncertainty only and did not account for turbine condition prediction. Design/methodology/approach Wind power system reliability can be defined as the probability that the generated power meets the demand, which is affected by both wind uncertainty and wind turbine failures. In this paper, a method is developed for wind power system reliability modeling considering wind uncertainty, as well as wind turbine condition through health condition prediction. All wind turbine components are considered. Optimization is performed for maximizing availability or minimizing cost. Optimization is also conducted for minor repair activities to find the optimal number of joint repairs. Findings The wind turbine condition uncertainty and its prediction are important for wind power system reliability assessment, as well as wind speed uncertainty. Optimal CBM policies can be achieved for optimizing turbine availability or maintenance cost. Optimal preventive maintenance policies can also be achieved for scheduling minor repair activities. Originality/value This paper considers uncertainty in both wind speed and turbine conditions and incorporates turbine condition prediction in reliability analysis and CBM optimization. Optimization for minor repair activities is studied to find the optimal number of joint repairs, which was not investigated before. All wind turbine components are considered, and data from the field as well as reported studies are used.