Ecosystem structure and resilience of the Florida Bay Estuary: an original ecosystem model with implications for everglades restoration

Restricted from its historic freshwater input from the Everglades, the Florida Bay estuary is plagued by hypersaline conditions and disturbances such as aperiodic seagrass die-off events. One of the largest restoration efforts in the US, the Comprehensive Everglades restoration Program (CERP) aims to restore the freshwater inputs lost. Providing world-renowned recreational fishing opportunities and nursery habitat for valuable commercial fisheries, the bay's condition, coupled with the potential changes from CERP and future climate, highlight the need to implement an ecosystem-based management (EBM) approach. We developed a comprehensive ecosystem model of Florida Bay using Ecopath with Ecosim to provide a thorough understanding of its structure and resilience to environmental disturbances. The results supported the hypothesis that the bay is stabilised through detrital pathways but is not driven primarily through bottom-up control as predicted. Several predator-prey relationships are identified for suggested ecological attention in fisheries management, including the ecological benefits of the forage species pink shrimp, clupeids, pinfish and mullets, and a negative top-down effect of common snook on red drum. The results further support the hypothesis that the restoration of freshwater flows will improve overall resilience in Florida Bay, namely by providing a regime of lower salinity and reduced nutrient enrichment.