Multi-model probabilistic analysis of the lifecycle cost of buildings

Estimates of the environmental impacts of constructing and operating buildings are critical for improving the sustainability of construction. To identify the best design, a holistic approach is necessary, considering emissions, energy use, direct costs, potential earthquake costs, etc. Accordingly, this paper addresses a multitude of lifecycle impacts associated with the manufacturing, construction, operations, damage, and demolition of buildings. All impacts are translated into a common utility, measured in dollars. A collection of cost models is developed, and detailed building models are created from BIM, i.e., building information modelling. A comprehensive analysis is conducted for a six-story building. Results show that the steel material option results in the lowest construction cost. The wood option results in the lowest cost of emissions, while the concrete option contributes the most to climate change. Earthquake damage accounts for about 3% of the total expected cost, but the worst-case earthquake cost exceeds the building value.