Modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters by a combination of wavelet transform and autoregression models

被引：10
|
作者：
Mandrikova, O. V. [1 ,2 ]
Glushkova, N. V. [1 ,2 ]
Zhivet'ev, I. V. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Space Phys Res & Radiowave Propagat, Far East Div, Paratunka 684034, Kamchatka, Russia
[2] Kamchatka State Technol Univ, Petropavlovsk Kamchatski 683003, Russia
来源：
GEOMAGNETISM AND AERONOMY | 2014年 / 54卷 / 05期
基金：
俄罗斯基础研究基金会;
关键词：
Solar Activity; Total Electron Content; Critical Frequency; ARIMA Model; Ionospheric Parameter;
D O I：
10.1134/S0016793214050107
中图分类号：
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号：
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要：
We propose a method of the modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters by combining wavelet transform with autoregression models (integrated moving average). The method makes it possible to reveal regularities in ionospheric parameters and to make forecasts on variations. Also, this method can be used to fill the gaps in ionospheric parameters, with consideration of their diurnal and seasonal variations. The method was tested on foF2 data and data on the total electron content for the regions of Kamchatka and Magadan. The models constructed for the natural variation in ionospheric parameters allowed us to analyze its dynamical mode and build a forecast with a step of up to five hours. Based on estimates for model errors, we revealed anomalies arising during periods of increased solar activity and strong earthquakes in Kamchatka.
引用
收藏
页码：593 / 600
页数：8
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