Enhanced Subsurface Subsidence Prediction Model Incorporating Key Strata Theory

Subsurface strata movements and deformations associated with longwall mining operations in underground coal mines could cause various disturbances to subsurface mine structures, ground water bodies, and coalbed methane reservoirs. In order to assess those disturbances correctly and to design effective and efficient mitigation measures, it is necessary to develop an accurate prediction model for subsurface strata movements and deformations. Decades of research have demonstrated that variations of stratification and lithology in the overburden have significant influence on the subsurface strata movements and deformations during ground subsidence process. The key strata theory states that the thick and hard key strata serve as the backbone of the overburden and control the movements of the thin and soft weak strata located above them. From an engineering standpoint, the overburden strata are subdivided into several individual groups by the key strata with each group consisting of a key layer at the bottom and weak layers overlying it. A new subsurface subsidence prediction model considering the key strata effects on subsurface strata movements and deformations has been proposed. In this method, elastic modulus, specific weight, tensile strength, and uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of each layer are used to identify the key layers and to determine the needed subsurface subsidence parameters. The influence function method, proven to be accurate and versatile for surface subsidence prediction, was employed to predict the subsidence on each of the overburden layers from mining horizon progressively upward to ground surface with the assumption that the predicted subsidence on a given layer serves as the subsidence source for the layer immediately above. The enhanced subsurface subsidence prediction model has been demonstrated with an actual case to show its applicability and improvement.