Economics of intercropping loblolly pine and oilseed crops for bio-jet fuel production in the Southern United States

Currently, there are 13.9 million hectares of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) in the Southern United States. Reforested hectares could be used for intercropping oilseed crops such as carinata (Brassica carinata) and white lupin (Lupinus albus L.). The oil obtained from these crops could be used for bio-jet fuel production to reduce the carbon footprint of the aviation sector. This study determines the profitability for three scenarios: loblolly pine with no intercropping (baseline), loblolly pine with carinata (once every three years), and loblolly pine with carinata and white lupin rotated annually. We ascertained the land expectation value (LEV) for three site indices of 15.3 m, 18.3 m, and 21.3 m. Carinata and white lupin were planted during the initial eight, seven, and six years for site indices 15.3 m, 18.3 m, and 21.3 m, respectively. Sensitivity and risk analyses were undertaken for determining the influence of input variables on LEVs and the probability of loss for intercropping production systems relative to a baseline production system, respectively. For site index 21.3 m, the LEV of loblolly pine with no intercropping was $2816/ha at a 21-years rotation period. Intercropping with carinata only and both carinata and white lupin yielded LEVs of $3346/ha and $3607/ha at a 21-years rotation period, respectively. The LEVs of production systems were sensitive to interest rate, price, and yield of carinata seeds. The intercropping approach had > 50% probability of being less profitable than loblolly pine alone in over half of the scenarios considered. Future research should focus on the impacts of intercropping on loblolly pine yield and adoption behavior of forest landowners.