The Impact of Agriculture on CO2 Emissions in China

This study empirically analyses the long-term relationship between agricultural production and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China by using annual data covering1971-2010. In estimating the relationship between agriculture and CO2 emissions, the study also includes real income and energy consumption as variables in the model, in line with the Environmental Kuznet Curves (EKC) hypothesis. To identify the existence of a long-term relationship between CO2 emissions and agriculture, the bounds test approach for cointegration and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methods are used. To determine the robustness of the results, other single-equation cointegration methods such as fully modified least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) are also estimated. The results confirm cointegration among variables and the presence of an inverse U-shaped agriculture-induced EKC curve for China. Agriculture increases a country's long-term CO2 emissions. The government, policymakers, and agricultural producers should set strategies covering energy-intensive economic activities, including agriculture, to solve environmental problems.