Intelligent Assistance of Decision-Making in the Management of Multifactor Systems Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Models

The article deals with the development of fuzzy cognitive models of the processes of analysis and management of the quality of education as a multifactor system. The approach based on definition of trajectories of achievement of target indicators of education quality with the use of technologies of knowledge engineering is offered. The functional scheme of the model of education quality management is developed. The structuring of factors influencing the quality of education is carried out: management and target indicators, as well as indicators characterizing the current state of the education system are identified. Cognitive modeling is carried out to analyze and support of making decisions on education quality management. Fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is developed on the basis of statistical data using methods of statistical and intelligent analysis. The analysis of the integrated system indicators of the constructed FCM, the results of which identified the most significant concepts that have the greatest impact on the state of the education system is carried out. The algorithm of Silov is applied for searching for the ways of direct and indirect influence of concepts on each other through the matrix of interaction between concepts, representing intelligent cognitive agent; the search procedure is based on the use maxtriangular operation with fuzzy matrices using the T - and S-norms. The maximum positive and negative ways between the management and target concepts of the FCM are formed, which are considered as possible scenarios for the use of budgetary funds to improve the quality of education. The constructed ways represent a chain of fuzzy rules of the form "if-then" and can be the basis for the formation of recommendations for decision-making in the management of the quality of education.