Estimation of the added value of using rainfall-runoff transformation and statistical models for seasonal streamflow forecasting

被引:3
|
作者
Sittichok, Ketvara [1 ]
Seidou, Ousmane [2 ,3 ]
Djibo, Abdouramane Gado [4 ]
Rakangthong, Neeranat Kaewprasert [5 ]
机构
[1] Kasetsart Univ, Dept Irrigat Engn, Fac Engn, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
[2] Univ Ottawa, Dept Civil Engn, Ottawa, ON, Canada
[3] United Nations Univ, Inst Water Environm & Hlth, Hamilton, ON, Canada
[4] Wetlands Int Mali, Dept Water Resources, Bamako, Mali
[5] Walailak Univ, Sch Management, Dept Econ, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand
关键词
seasonal streamflow forecasting; principal component analysis; multiple linear regression; SWAT; statistical model; cost; loss ratio; NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION; ECONOMIC VALUE; SAHEL RAINFALL; DECISION-MAKING; RIVER-BASIN; SWAT MODEL; PREDICTION; CLIMATE; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE;
D O I
10.1080/02626667.2018.1445854
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
Two methods for generating streamflow forecasts in a Sahelian watershed, the Sirba basin, were compared. The direct method used a linear relationship to relate sea-surface temperature to annual streamflow, and then disaggregated on a monthly time scale. The indirect method used a linear relationship to generate annual precipitation forecasts, a temporal disaggregation to generate daily precipitation and the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to generate monthly streamflow. The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed using the coefficient of determination, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the Hit score, and their economic value was evaluated using the cost/loss ratio method. The results revealed that the indirect method was slightly more effective than the direct method. However, the direct method achieved higher economic value in the majority of cost/loss situations, allowed for predictions with longer lead times and required less information.
引用
收藏
页码:630 / 645
页数:16
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