Effect of wind stress on the catch of Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus off northwestern Kyushu, Japan

Effect of wind stress on the annual catch of Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus off northwestern Kyushu for the period between 1963 and 2009 was investigated. Regime shift analysis detected several step changes in catch and environmental variables. Since the mid-1980s, the anchovy catch in the coastal fishery zones has declined, while the catch in the offshore zone has increased. The decline of catch in the coastal zones showed a significant correlation with the long-term variations in prevailing north-northeastward wind stress over the Goto-Nada Sea during spring spawning season. The results indicated that weakened north-northeastward winds caused the recent low recruitment of anchovy through low levels of wind-induced eggs and larval transport from the offshore spawning ground to the coastal nursery areas, resulting in the potential shift of nursery area to the northwestern offshore region. Thus, as well as the growth-favorable ambient temperature, transport process would play a key role on long-term fluctuations in anchovy abundance in these coastal seas.