A Novel Seepage Behavior Prediction and Lag Process Identification Method for Concrete Dams Using HGWO-XGBoost Model

Seepage monitoring is a vital task in the risk management of concrete dams. Considering the lag effect of input factors, this paper presents a novel seepage monitoring model for concrete dams and proposes an effective identification method of lag process. Firstly, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were adopted to predict the dam seepage. Hybridizing grey wolf optimization (HGWO) which integrates differential evolution (DE) into grey wolf optimization (GWO) and five-fold cross validation were utilized to optimize the hyper-parameters of XGBoost. Secondly, under the same search range and four evaluation indicators, the models optimized respectively by HGWO and three other algorithms were compared to confirm the global optimization capability of HGWO. Six state-of-art methods were also introduced to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model. Then, based on the computation method of factor importance in decision tree models, we evaluated the relative importance of each component in the proposed model. Finally, according to the factor importance, the lag process of upstream water level and rainfall was identified, meanwhile a new equivalent water level calculation method is proposed. Monitoring data from three piezometric tubes on a concrete dam were taken as the experimental object. The results show that the improved HGWO has stronger global optimization ability, and the HGWO-XGBoost model achieves satisfactory prediction for seepage in concrete dams. Compared with the traditional trial-and-error method, the lag process computation method proposed in this paper provides a better recognition effect, which is of great value to the seepage monitoring and control of concrete dams.