Temperature-Load Sensitivity Study for Adjusting MISO Day-ahead Load Forecast

This paper presents the results of a temperature-load sensitivity study carried out at the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) for adjusting MISO day-ahead load forecast. As the area operated by MISO is growing rapidly, operators at MISO have to examine the day-ahead load forecast results generated by commercial software packages on a daily basis and manually correct anticipated discrepancies to enhance the forecast accuracy. To quantify the adjustment of the forecasted load, a series of temperature-load sensitivity studies are conducted using the actual MISO load data from past 5 years. A piecewise general linear model (GLM) is developed to capture the impact of time-dependent factors and temperature variations on the magnitude of MISO temperature-load sensitivity. A numerical study case compares the results before and after the tuning with the presented temperature-load sensitivity analysis.