Rethinking the South China Sea issue: A perspective of Sino-US relations

Three essential factors of international politics underlie current controversies regarding the South China Sea: sovereignty, resources and strategy. Before the 1980's, the United States maintained a completely "neutral position" towards this issue for a number of historical reasons. However, when the 1982 UNCLOS III entered into force in 1994, the South China Sea joined Taiwan and the tensions on the Korean Peninsula as one of three potential flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region. Since 1994, American foreign policy regarding the South China Sea underwent three stages of development: prevention-deterrence-practice. This article analyzes these changes by focusing on the development of America's Asia-Pacific security strategy, especially one of its main outcomes: the development of the Sino-U.S. relationship. From balance of power and geopolitical theories, in the long run, the South China Sea issue may become a global fulcrum between the U.S. and China, which probably will become a global power in the future. Even as a regional power today, it is well known that the Taiwan issue has led to conflict and competition with the U.S. for more than half a century. To avoid falling into the same old trap again as with the Taiwan issue in the past, we must prepare for a rainy day in solving the South China Sea issue, in essence, to find a balance between China's position, which represents a newcomer's demands, and international maritime law, which represents the vested interests of the international system. We need a long-term perspective to deal with the Sino-U.S relationship.