AN AGENT-BASED EPIDEMIC MODEL FOR DENGUE SIMULATION IN THE PHILIPPINES

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease and a severe health issue in tropical and subtropical countries. Based on a literature search and data gathering, an agent-based model for simulating dengue epidemics is developed. It models human and mosquito agents with detailed agent's behavior, mosquito biting rules and transmissions. Featuring a modular approach, it provides flexibility and allows functionalities that are easy to manage and to communicate. The model is parameterized and calibrated to simulate the 2010 dengue epidemic in Cebu City, Philippines. This works fairly well and also provides insights into the spreading process of dengue. It reveals that the changing mosquito population during rainy season has a great impact on the epidemic. It suggests how further research on that matter using models and extended biological studies might lead to a better understanding of the dengue spreading process, and eventually to more effective disease control.