Dynamic strategic planning for technology policy

Dynamic Strategic Planning is an effective method for the development of rational policies for the intelligent development of technology or large-scale engineering projects. It is: Dynamic in that it explicitly recognizes the risk and uncertainties necessarily associated with any forecast about the future performance and acceptance of any technology, and thus the need to build flexibility into the plan and to adjust the plan according to the events that occur; Strategic in that it seeks long-term benefits rather than myopic, short-term objectives; and Planning in that it develops a process to follow in order to achieve the best possible results for the prevailing circumstances. The paper describes the principles of Dynamic Strategic Planning, indicates specific methods that are effective for carrying them out, and illustrates their use through application to the formulation of policy on low-emission automobiles in the United States.