Impacts of Heat and Drought on Gross Primary Productivity in China

Heat and drought stress, which often occur together, are the main environmental factors limiting the survival and growth of vegetation. Studies on the response of gross primary production (GPP) to extreme climate events such as heat and drought are highly significant for the identification of ecologically vulnerable regions, ecological risk assessments, and ecological environmental protection. We got 1982-2017 climatic data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, England, and GPP data from National Earth System Science Data Sharing Service Platform, Beijing, China. Using Theil-Sen median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed trends in temperature and the standardized precipitation/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices in the eight vegetation regions of China. Additionally, the response of GPP to the single and combined impacts of heat and drought were analyzed using multidimensional copula functions, and GPP reduction probabilities were estimated under different drought levels and heat intensities. The results showed that the probability of a drastic GPP reduction increases with increasing drought levels and heat intensities. The combined impacts of heat and drought on vegetation productivity is greater than the impacts of either drought or heat alone and presents a nonlinear superposition of the two extremes. The impact of heat on GPP is not evident when the drought level is high. The temperate grassland and warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest regions are the most sensitive regions to drought and heat in China. This study provides a scientific basis for the comprehensive evaluation of the risk of GPP reduction under the single and combined impacts of heat stress and drought stress.