block sequential Monte Carlo;
importance sampling;
Markov chain Monte Carlo;
optimal filtering;
particle filtering;
state-space models;
D O I:
10.1198/106186006X142744
中图分类号:
O21 [概率论与数理统计];
C8 [统计学];
学科分类号:
020208 ;
070103 ;
0714 ;
摘要:
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a powerful set of simulation-based techniques for sampling sequentially from a sequence of complex probability distributions. These methods rely on a combination of importance sampling and resampling techniques. In a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, block sampling strategies often perform much better than algorithms based on one-at-a-time sampling strategies if "good" proposal distributions to update blocks of variables can be designed. In an SMC framework, standard algorithms sequentially sample the variables one at a time whereas, like MCMC, the efficiency of algorithms could be improved significantly by using block sampling strategies. Unfortunately, a direct implementation of such strategies is impossible as it requires the knowledge of integrals which do not admit closed-form expressions. This article introduces a new methodology which bypasses this problem and is a natural extension of standard SMC methods. Applications to several sequential Bayesian inference problems demonstrate these methods.
机构:
Board Governors Fed Reserve Syst, Washington, DC 20551 USABoard Governors Fed Reserve Syst, Washington, DC 20551 USA
Herbst, Edward
Schorfheide, Frank
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Penn, Dept Econ, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
CEPR, London, England
NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USABoard Governors Fed Reserve Syst, Washington, DC 20551 USA