Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo

被引：18

作者：

Tojinbara, Kageaki ^{[1
]}

Sugiura, K. ^{[2
,4
]}

Yamada, A. ^{[3
]}

Kakitani, I. ^{[4
]}

Kwan, N. C. L. ^{[4
]}

Sugiura, K. ^{[2
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Ikiiki Chikusan Chiba Support Ctr, 324-4 Fukutawara, Togane, Chiba 2830812, Japan

[2] Kagoshima Univ, Sch Med, Fac Med, 8-35-1 Sakuragaoka, Kagoshima, Kagoshima 8908544, Japan

[3] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Dept Vet Med Sci, Bunkyo Ku, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Tokyo 1138657, Japan

[4] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Dept Global Agr Sci, Bunkyo Ku, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Tokyo 1138657, Japan

来源：

PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE | 2016年 / 123卷

关键词：

Bootstrap; Incubation period; Japan; Maximum likelihood estimates; Rabies; CATS; VIRUS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.11.018

中图分类号：

S85 [动物医学（兽医学）];

学科分类号：

0906 ;

摘要：

Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：102 / 105

页数：4