The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation

被引：6
|
作者：
Boulier, BL [1 ]
Stekler, HO [1 ]
机构：
[1] George Washington Univ, Dept Econ, Washington, DC 20052 USA
来源：
ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2000年 / 66卷 / 01期
关键词：
term structure; business cycle; forecasting;
D O I：
10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00184-6
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper evaluates the monthly term spread as a predictor of the growth rates of the U.S. Industrial Production Index and whether or not a month is classified as recessionary using techniques previously applied to quarterly data. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A, All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：79 / 83
页数：5
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