The future of coal supply in China based on non-fossil energy development and carbon price strategies

被引:105
|
作者
Jie, Dingfei [1 ,2 ]
Xu, Xiangyang [1 ,2 ]
Guo, Fei [3 ]
机构
[1] China Univ Min & Technol Beijing, Sch Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
[2] China Univ Min & Technol Beijing, Ctr Resources & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
[3] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
关键词
Coal supply model; Multi-regional; Non-fossil energy development; Carbon price; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; POWER-GENERATION; CO2; EMISSIONS; TECHNOLOGIES; MODEL; LIQUEFACTION; PENETRATION; CONSUMPTION; ENVIRONMENT; INDUSTRY;
D O I
10.1016/j.energy.2020.119644
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
To realize China's low-carbon development, coal needs to be produced and consumed in a clean and efficient way. In this paper, a multi-regional coal supply model is developed to gain insights into China's coal supply system up to 2050. Regional disparity, coal classification, and the development of clean coal technologies are specified in the model. Based on MESSAGEix, this model takes full consideration of coal mining, preparation, transformation, and transportation processes. Moreover, the effects of non-fossil energy development and carbon price are discussed. With the above framework, the future of China's coal supply system is optimized. Results indicate that: 1) China's national raw coal production will peak in 2030 under the business -as-usual scenario, while it has already peaked under the GREEN and carbon price scenarios, 2) The amount of coal used in final consumption and transformed into coke decreases, while coal transformed into liquids and SNG increases from 11 Mt in 2015 to 221 Mt in 2050 under the business -as-usual scenario, 3) both non-fossil fuel development and carbon price strategies have a positive effect on coal supply regulation and coal-related GHG emission reduction, 4) carbon price could facilitate the adoption of CCS technology and can effectively reduce coal-related GHG emissions. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页数:15
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