Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California's Public Safety Realignment Reform

Recent reforms in California caused a sharp and permanent reduction in the state's incarceration rate. We evaluate the effects of that incarceration decline on local crime rates. Our analysis exploits the large variation across California counties in the effect of this reform on county-specific prison incarceration rates. We find very little evidence that the large reduction in California incarceration had an effect on violent crime, and modest evidence of effects on property crime, auto theft in particular. These effects are considerably smaller than existing estimates based on panel data for periods of time when the U.S. incarceration rate was considerably lower. We corroborate these cross-county results with a synthetic-cohort analysis of state crime rates in California. The statewide analysis confirms our findings from the county-level analysis. In line with with previous research, the results from this study support the hypothesis of a crime-prison effect that diminishes with increased reliance on incarceration.