The impact of agency failure on executive approval: Evidence from the Bush and Obama presidencies

Over the past few decades, scholars have developed a rich research record on the causes and consequences of low presidential approval ratings. While this literature has provided valuable insight on presidential approval, little attention is paid to how agency failures also impact approval. In this article, I argue this understudied topic can provide additional leverage to help understand when public trust in the president is eroded. Using Markov Regime switching models of weekly approval ratings for the Bush and Obama presidencies, I demonstrate approval falls when agency failures make national headlines. In addition, findings also show that the impact of these events hinge on the number of failures and not the magnitude of any one breakdown in particular.