Origin-Destination Matrix Prediction via Graph Convolution: a New Perspective of Passenger Demand Modeling

Ride-hailing applications are becoming more and more popular for providing drivers and passengers with convenient ride services, especially in metropolises like Beijing or New York. To obtain the passengers' mobility patterns, the online platforms of ride services need to predict the number of passenger demands from one region to another in advance. We formulate this problem as an Origin-Destination Matrix Prediction (ODMP) problem. Though this problem is essential to large-scale providers of ride services for helping them make decisions and some providers have already put it forward in public(1), existing studies have not solved this problem well. One of the main reasons is that the ODMP problem is more challenging than the common demand prediction. Besides the number of demands in a region, it also requires the model to predict the destinations of them. In addition, data sparsity is a severe issue. To solve the problem effectively, we propose a unified model, Grid-Embedding based Multi-task Learning (GEML) which consists of two components focusing on spatial and temporal information respectively. The Grid-Embedding part is designed to model the spatial mobility patterns of passengers and neighboring relationships of different areas, the pre-weighted aggregator of which aims to sense the sparsity and range of data. The Multi-task Learning framework focuses on modeling temporal attributes and capturing several objectives of the ODMP problem. The evaluation of our model is conducted on real operational datasets from UCAR and Didi(2). The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our GEML against the state-of-the-art approaches.