The Application of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and its Precipitation Ensemble Prediction on Flood forecast

Taking the Zhanghe basin in Hubei Province as research area, the research uses precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of AREM model, inputs the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and makes the forecast test on flood process in 2008. The results show that the flood forecast result can be improved obviously when precipitation in forecast period is considered, and that hydrological forecast based on Precipitation Ensemble Prediction can enrich hydrological forecast information and improve the reliability of forecast result.