Disciplined imagination: Building scenarios and building theories

This article outlines a relationship between scenario construction and theory building. This is done in two key ways: (1) it is argued that a deficiency of theory and theory building exists with regard to the phenomenon of scenario construction and (2) it is also argued that scenario construction may constitute a form of theory building. These arguments are developed using foundational works that label both scenario construction and theory building as processes of disciplined imagination. Drawing from other core works in management and organizational change perspectives the argument is developed that scenario construction might most appropriately be thought of as a process of developing and changing theories-in-use. Conclusions and implications for management professionals are drawn. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.