Dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay outflow plume: Realistic plume simulation and its seasonal and interannual variability

The three-dimensional unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) was implemented for Chesapeake Bay and its adjacent coastal ocean to delineate the realistic Chesapeake Bay outflow plume (CBOP) as well as its seasonal and interannual variability. Applying the appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution, the model exhibited relatively high skill in matching the observational water level, temperature, and salinity from 2003 to 2012. The simulated surface plume structure was verified by comparing output to the HF radar current measurements, earlier field observations, and the MODIS and AVHRR satellite imagery. According to the orientation, shape, and size of the CBOP from both model snapshots and satellite images, five types of real-time plume behavior were detected, which implied strong regulation by wind and river discharge. In addition to the episodic plume modulation, horizontal and vertical structure of the CBOP exhibited variations on seasonal and interannual temporal scales. Seasonally, river discharge with a 1 month lag was primarily responsible for the surface plume area variation, while the plume thickness was mainly correlated to wind magnitude. On the interannual scale, river discharge was the predominant source of variability in both surface plume area and depth; however, the southerly winds also influenced the offshore plume depth. In addition, large-scale climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, could potentially affect the plume signature in the long term by altering wind and upwelling dynamics, underlining the need to understand the impacts of climate change on buoyant plumes, such as the CBOP.