Marine species distribution shifts on the US Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

被引:213
|
作者
Kleisner, Kristin M. [1 ,4 ]
Fogarty, Michael J. [1 ]
McGee, Sally [2 ]
Hare, Jonathan A. [1 ]
Moret, Skye [2 ]
Perretti, Charles T. [1 ]
Saba, Vincent S. [3 ]
机构
[1] NOAA, Northeast Fisheries Sci Ctr, 166 Water St, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA
[2] Nature Conservancy, 99 Bedford St,Fifth Floor, Boston, MA 02111 USA
[3] NOAA, Northeast Fisheries Sci Ctr, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton Univ Forrestal Campus,201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA
[4] Environm Def Fund, 257 Pk Ave South, New York, NY 10010 USA
基金
美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
Climate change; Thermal habitat; Global climate model; Northwest Atlantic; Temperature shifts; ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES; CLIMATE-CHANGE;
D O I
10.1016/j.pocean.2017.04.001
中图分类号
P7 [海洋学];
学科分类号
0707 ;
摘要
The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 degrees C (surface) to 5.0 degrees C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 degrees C (surface) to 3.9 degrees C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports along the U.S. Northeast Shelf. Given the complications of multiple drivers including species interactions and fishing pressure, it is difficult to predict exactly how species will shift. However, observations of species distribution shifts in the historical record under ocean warming suggest that temperature will play a primary role in influencing how species fare. Our results provide critical information on the potential for suitable thermal habitat on the U.S. Northeast Shelf for demersal species in the region, and may contribute to the development of ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies in response to climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:24 / 36
页数:13
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Shifting species assemblages in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem
    Lucey, Sean M.
    Nye, Janet A.
    MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, 2010, 415 : 23 - 33
  • [2] Consumption by marine mammals on the Northeast US continental shelf
    Smith, Laurel A.
    Link, Jason S.
    Cadrin, Steven X.
    Palka, Debra L.
    ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 2015, 25 (02) : 373 - 389
  • [3] Regime shifts in fish recruitment on the Northeast US Continental Shelf
    Perretti, Charles T.
    Fogarty, Michael J.
    Friedland, Kevin D.
    Hare, Jon A.
    Lucey, Sean M.
    McBride, Richard S.
    Miller, Timothy J.
    Morse, Ryan E.
    O'Brien, Loretta
    Pereira, Jose J.
    Smith, Laurel A.
    Wuenschel, Mark J.
    MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, 2017, 574 : 1 - 11
  • [4] Marine Heatwaves and Their Depth Structures on the Northeast US Continental Shelf
    Grosselindemann, Hendrik
    Ryan, Svenja
    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.
    Martin, Torge
    Biastoch, Arne
    FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, 2022, 4
  • [5] The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the Northeast US continental shelf in 2012
    Chen, Ke
    Gawarkiewicz, Glen
    Kwon, Young-Oh
    Zhang, Weifeng G.
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2015, 120 (06) : 4324 - 4339
  • [6] A high-resolution ocean bottom temperature product for the northeast US continental shelf marine ecosystem
    du Pontavice, Hubert
    Chen, Zhuomin
    Saba, Vincent S.
    PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY, 2023, 210
  • [7] An evaluation of eight global ocean reanalyses for the Northeast US Continental shelf
    Castillo-Trujillo, Alma Carolina
    Kwon, Young -Oh
    Fratantoni, Paula
    Chen, Ke
    Seo, Hyodae
    Alexander, Michael A.
    Saba, Vincent S.
    PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY, 2023, 219
  • [8] Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the US Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences
    Kavanaugh, Maria T.
    Rheuban, Jennie E.
    Luis, Kelly M. A.
    Doney, Scott C.
    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2017, 122 (12) : 9399 - 9414
  • [9] Preliminary investigation of marine biotoxins in scallop tissues along the US northeast continental shelf
    Day, Geoffrey
    Taylor, Richard
    Anderson, Donald M.
    Van Dolah, Frances
    Hickey, J. Michael
    Whitaker, David
    JOURNAL OF SHELLFISH RESEARCH, 2008, 27 (04): : 1001 - 1001
  • [10] Decadal Changes in Zooplankton of the Northeast US Continental Shelf
    Bi, Hongsheng
    Ji, Rubao
    Liu, Hui
    Jo, Young-Heon
    Hare, Jonathan A.
    PLOS ONE, 2014, 9 (01):