Robustness analysis in forecasting of time series

被引:0
|
作者
Kharin, Y [1 ]
机构
[1] Belarusian State Univ, Minsk 220050, BELARUS
关键词
robustness; forecasting; time series; distortions; risk;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
The problems of statistical forecasting of time series under distortions of traditional hypothetical models are considered. The following distorted models of time series are used: trend models under "outliers" and functional distortions, regression models under "outliers" and "errors-in-regressors", autoregressive time series with parameter specification errors and non-homogeneous innovations. Robustness characteristics based on the mean square risk of forecasting are introduced and evaluated for these cases. In addition, new robust forecasting procedures are presented.
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页码:180 / 193
页数:14
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