PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON NUTHATCH DISTRIBUTION AND DIVERSITY ACROSS ASIA

We used ecological niche modeling approaches to explore climate change implications for one family of birds, the Sittidae, in Asia. Quantitative niche models based on present-day distributions for each of 13 species were projected onto future climate change scenarios. Species' potential distributional areas tended to be predicted to retract along their southern fringes, and at lower elevations along mountain ranges. As observed in other studies, montane systems were relatively more robust to the horizontal effects of climate change on species' distributions compared to flatland systems, so range contractions were focused in Southeast Asia and peninsular India.