Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

被引:75
|
作者
Hekkenberg, M. [1 ]
Moll, H. C. [1 ]
Uiterkamp, A. J. M. Schoot [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Groningen, Ctr Energy & Environm Studies, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands
关键词
Energy demand; Degree days; Climate change; Cooling; Heating; Outdoor temperature; ELECTRICITY DEMAND; CONSUMPTION; SENSITIVITY; METHODOLOGY; IMPACT; LEVEL; LOAD;
D O I
10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.037
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TOP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1797 / 1806
页数:10
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