Scenario simulation of water resources development and utilization based on a system dynamics model

被引：7
|
作者：
Wang, Huan [1 ]
Huang, Jiejun [1 ]
Cheng, Xuejun [2 ]
Zhou, Han [1 ]
Yuan, Yanbin [1 ]
机构：
[1] Wuhan Univ Technol, Sch Resource & Environm Engn, Wuhan, Peoples R China
[2] Changjiang Water Resources Commiss, Changjiang River Sci Res Inst, Wuhan, Peoples R China
来源：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT | 2022年 / 38卷 / 03期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
System dynamics; scenario simulation; water demand; water pollution; Hubei province;
D O I：
10.1080/07900627.2021.1908235
中图分类号：
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号：
081501 ;
摘要：
This paper establishes a quantitative model based on the system dynamics (SD) theory to reflect the 'socioeconomic-water-environment' coupling system and proposes three future development scenarios. Hubei province, China, is selected to verify this model. The simulation results from 2020 to 2030 demonstrate that the pressures of water supply and demand and pollution under the sustainable development scenario are less than those under two other scenarios. It means that adjustment of the industrial structure has a relatively weaker effect on alleviating the pressure of water supply and demand. Saving water and controlling pollution should be the emphasis of current efforts.
引用
收藏
页码：447 / 463
页数：17
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