Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) For Emissions Reduction in the New Zealand Electricity Sector

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) is a recent extension of traditional thermal and mass pinch analysis to the area of emissions targeting and planning on a macro-scale (i.e. economy wide). This paper presents a carbon pinch analysis of the New Zealand electricity industry and illustrates some of the issues with realising meaningful emissions reductions. The current large proportion of renewable generation sources (similar to 67% in 2007) complicates wholesale emissions reductions. The biggest growth in renewable generation is expected to come from geothermal energy followed by wind and hydro. A four fold increase in geothermal generation capacity is needed in addition to large amounts of new wind generation to reduce emissions to around 1990 levels and also meet projected demand. The expected expansion of geothermal generation in New Zealand raises issues of GHG emissions from the geothermal fields. The emissions factors between fields can vary by almost two orders of magnitude making predictions of total emissions highly site specific.