System uncertainty modelling using Monte Carlo simulation

The use of system models based on Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated to allow a petrochemical operating company to focus its limited resources and budget in the areas of greatest sensitivity to gain the biggest benefit. For existing systems, the model help define whether the present operating conditions meet the applicable agreements; and whether or not optimization in areas can be made while still remaining within the terms of the relevant agreements. For new green field developments, the uncertainty can quickly be determined, establishing the limits that can be achieved and hence, the required equipment. The biggest benefit is for new projects with existing facilities, the allocation possibilities can be tested and the best method found.