Disaster intelligence: developing strategic warning for national security

The growing occurrence and intensity of disasters pose complex risks to national security, yet intelligence agencies do not possess the expertise to identify and assess emerging hazards effectively. Greater cooperation with experts outside the intelligence community, particularly scientists and local experts with valuable information, can allow effective warnings in advance of catastrophic events. This article makes an argument for strategic disaster intelligence, using two cases of major earthquakes and tsunamis to illustrate both disaster warning failures and opportunities for more effective disaster and risk mitigation.