Individual risk and social risk analysis for urban pipeline carrying natural gas

urban pipeline carrying natural gas is one of the important hazardous sources, the consequence is usually the fire and explosion due to leakage of natural gas so as to bring hazard to the vicinity. The quantitative risk analysis is very important to its risk management and is being considered to apply it to improve the safety level of urban pipelines carrying natural gas. This paper focused on the pipeline failure probability and its consequence due to the characteristic of pipeline and natural gas so as to estimate the individual risk and social risk. Individual risk was got from the pipeline failure probability which was calculated by historical data and the death probability at a specified location. Social risk was got from the pipeline failure probability and the number of death which was calculated within three zones of 100%-99%, 99%-50% and 50%-1% lethality. The pipeline safety distance was designed based on the acceptable criteria of individual risk to support the risk management and planning of pipeline. The computation outcome of the selected pipeline in Handan shows that the safety distance is 72 m according to the acceptable criteria of individual risk 10-(6) and the social risk can be seen as ignorable due to social risk criterion diagram.