SAFE HAVENS FOR GLOBAL JIHADI MOVEMENTS

The issue of terrorist safe havens has been dealt with since 9/11 when al-Qaeda attacked the US from its sanctuary in Afghanistan. However, until now there have been only few attempts to elaborate an analytical framework to identify areas that could transform into terrorist safe havens. Moreover, this issue is particularly important in the era when the so-called ISIS has been physically defeated, however, its ideology remains, hence there is a potential risk of its physical re-emergence in a new sanctuary. Thus, the aim of this article is to define safe havens for global jihadi movements by a set of criteria that make a certain area more attractive and vulnerable to the exploitation by jihadists. All criteria were identified after a rigorous study of the establishment of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as well as its failure to establish itself in Somalia in the 1990s. The provided toolbox consists of three categories of criteria and sub-criteria whose interplay conditions a successful establishment of a global jihadi movement within a particular area. A quantitative analysis of every factor will enable to identify areas that are the most vulnerable and could potentially become the jihadist sanctuaries.