Turcoscepticism and Threat Perception: European Public and Elite Opinion on Turkey's Protracted EU Membership

This article examines the political debate surrounding Turkey's protracted accession to the European Union (EU) from the viewpoints of mass and elite opinion in Europe, focusing on the impact of Islamophobia and the fears about immigration. It investigates how threat perception reflects itself in the form of Turcoscepticism. It concerns itself with (i) whether Turcoscepticism is based on perceived threats of Islamic extremism or immigration influxes, and (ii) how these perceived threats affect public and elite attitudes towards Turkey's EU membership. Through a quantitative investigation of public and elite polling data (2006-08), the analysis reveals that Islamophobia and fear of immigration contribute to Turcosceptic anxiety in Europe only at the mass level.