Characterizing regional groundwater flow in the Ethiopian Rift: A multi-model approach applied to Gidabo River Basin

Being located in the tectonically active Ethiopian Rift, the hydrogeology of the Gidabo River Basin is complex due to the disruption of lithologies by faults and the variability and lateral discontinuity of the aquifers. Hydrogeochemical and isotopic data suggest that the aquifers within the rift floor receive a relevant contribution of groundwater recharged in the highland. However, the incomplete knowledge about the aquifer properties, the hydraulic behavior of the faults, and the boundary conditions cause uncertainties in this conceptual hydrogeological model. To account for these uncertainties fourteen different numerical models with a stepwise increase from 7 to 40 adjustable parameters were developed, calibrated against the same hydraulic head observations, and ranked according to the Akaike information criteria (AIC and AICc) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Based on the information criteria five plausible models were identified, all of which were successfully verified against the river baseflow. The highest likelihood is attributed to a model with eleven adjustable parameters that does not explicitly account for the fault zones; other plausible models considering faults as semi-barriers achieve a slight improvement in model fit but have lower likelihood due to the increased number of calibration parameters. Thus, the effect of faults on groundwater flow needs further investigation, particularly at a local scale. On a regional scale, the hydraulic head distributions of the plausible models agree reasonably well with the equipotential map interpolated from well observations. The estimated transmissivity values range between 30 m(2)/day and 1350 m(2)/day and generally increase from the mountains towards the rift floor. The water budget shows that 75 % of the groundwater recharge supplies baseflow to the rivers. The remaining water infiltrates to the deeper aquifers where less than 1 % is abstracted by pumping wells and the rest flows towards Lake Abaya. Within the rift floor, the majority of inflow to the aquifers is from direct recharge; nevertheless, 35 % of the inflow is contributed by mountain block recharge (lateral groundwater flow from the escarpment and highland). The results of this study strongly advocate the idea to incorporate alternative plausible models instead of relying on single models in the practice of groundwater modeling especially in areas of complex hydrogeology and limited data availability.