Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia

This article expounds one of the first attempts to explore the relationship between tourist arrivals and gross domestic product (GDP) in Montenegro and Slovenia. Both countries are newcomers on the tourist destinations map, derived from what was previously Yugoslav republics existing as a singular emerging tourist destination. Data vector for empirical analysis covers quarterly change of GDP at constant prices and monthly data for tourist arrivals during January 2010 - December 2019 as an endogenous variable. The cointegration is used in the modelling structure. The empirical results confirm research hypothesis of uni-causal relationship of economic growth-led domestic tourism growth in Montenegro and one cointegrated vector. No cointegration vector was confirmed for Slovenia. These results are important for research, policymakers and tourism practice. Considering that, tourism and economic growth have a different distribution of causalities during the expansion period with a boost of tourist arrivals and vice versa during the economic downturn.